Finland Applies to NATO
On May 12, 2022 Finland made history by announcing their intention to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as its 31st member. Many believed the addition of Finland to NATO would prove simple, but dissension threatens to derail the Finland’s plans.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan raised concerns regarding Finland’s relationship with Kurdish groups, which he calls terrorist organizations. Turkey most likely angles to win concessions sparked by the F-35 debacle, where Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems removed Turkey from the F-35 program. Some also suspect Hungary’s President Victor Orban may use Finland’s membership as an opportunity to extract concessions from NATO as well.
If Finland overcomes the objections from other NATO members then NATO’s capabilities will increase. Finland currently spends 1.9% of its GDP on the military, nearly reaching the 2% informal NATO goal. The spending results in Finland bringing many assets to NATO including
1. Fully mobilized armed force of 280,000 soldiers with several hundred thousand reservists
2. Experience with Artic military affairs
3. 5th generation fighter jets (64 F-35s)
Thankfully the Finns use the land-based F-35A, because one cannot expect the other variants to be ready for battle.
F-35 Woes
On April 28, 2022 The US House of Representatives held a contentious hearing on the F-35. There are three versions of the F-35, land based F-35A (Air Force), small carrier based F-35B (Marines) with Short Take-off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) capabilities, and large carrier based F-35C (Navy). We expect each plane to achieve fully mission capable rates of 80% (F-35A) and 75% (F-35B & F-35C).
The hearing revealed the unacceptably low mission capable rates of the F-35’s, none of which hit their target. The F-35A reached fully mission capable rate of 50% (target: 80%) while the F-35B fully mission capable rate hit 20% (target: 75%) and the F-35C recorded fully mission capable rate of 9.5% (target: 75%).
For some reason, the carrier based F-35B and F-35C struggle to remain fully mission capable. Prudence would advise policymakers for the US Navy and Marine Corp to devise back-up plans if the F-35 cannot perform its carrier based duties. Thankfully, we begin to see the formation of a backup plan.
The Reaper Enters The Ring
The dreaded MQ-9 Reaper will receive kits to give the drone the ability to perform Short Take-off and Landing (STOL). This attribute allows the land-based Reaper to take-off from Marine amphibious assault ships (small carriers) and other austere bases discussed in my previous article.
Policymakers expect the stealthy F-35 to penetrate modern air defense systems, a mission beyond the reach of 4th generation fighter jets. We know that a large portion of our 5th generation fighter jets may remain unavailable for battle. How will US military leaders handle complex air defense environments like the one we expect to see over China? Last week, Ukraine showed us how our military leaders take out air defense systems without access to the F-35.
Ukraine Does SEAD
Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) remains one of the most important missions in the armed forces. In my Week 3 Recap, I discussed how anti-air systems heavily reduced the usability of 4th generation fighter jets, like Ukraine’s Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker.
To make fourth generation fighter jets useful, one needs to perform the SEAD mission. On May 6, 2022 Ukraine’s Bayraktar TB2 launched a bombing run against a Russian air defense system on the infamous Snake Island.
This led Russia to send a replacement air defense system on a landing craft to its forces on Snake Island. The forces never received the shipment because a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 struck the vessel as it sits near the dock.
The destruction of the air defense systems left the Russian soldiers on Snake Island vulnerable to Ukrainian 4th generation fighter jets. Ukraine took advantage of the situation as two of the previously mentioned Su-27’s completed a bomb strike over the island while being filmed by a nearby Bayraktar TB2.
The US Navy and Marine Corp can learn from Ukraine’s example. Armed drones like the Bayraktar TB2 and Reaper can perform the SEAD mission. By knocking out enemy air defenses, the Reaper opens up the skies to 4th generation fighter jets like the F-15 and F-16 for the Air Force, and F/A-18 for the Navy and Marine Corp. With a myriad of problems plaguing the F-35, America would be wise to hedge its bet.