Cost-Benefit Framework of War
I present my theory of armed conflict: A leader may pursue armed conflict if the benefit of war exceeds the cost of war while satisfying the leader’s risk tolerance. We cannot change a leader’s benefit of war, but we can increase the cost. Putin may be acting more aggressively because his positive cost-benefit window is closing.
What evidence do I posses of this window closing? I direct you to the actions of the Russian army. Alex Kokcharov alerted the world to an eccentric Russian tank with a cage-like structure above the turret. He explains the abnormal armor may be intended to stop “top-down [missile] attacks”. When the Russian military (who have skin in the game) change their behavior, I take notice.
Why are top-down missile attacks dangerous? The Warzone explains:
The aforementioned cage or screen-like structures added to the turret tops of Russian tanks are crude metal structures, similar to slat armor, that are clearly intended to provide protection against attacks from directly above. Traditionally, of course, protection for tanks has focused on the sides and the front of the hull and turret.
Let’s see the danger in action, here are three examples of top down missile attacks.
Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone
This notorious weapon has been compared to a knock-off Predator drone, but that is no insult. The Bayraktar TB2’s combination of lethality and affordability led it to feature prominently in the warzones of Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, Ethiopia, and now Ukraine. Here is footage from the Ukrainian Armed Forces of its maiden operation. As an air launched missile, it strikes downward.
Ukrainian built quadcopters
The Ukrainians are turning unassuming quadcopters into a threat from above. (Surprisingly, ISIS is the first entity I’ve seen use this tactic) Rob Lee reported videos of Ukrainian forces dropping unguided explosives from quadcopters. As an air dropped weapon, it strikes downward.
US Javelin anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM)
Ukraine also uses this deadly ATGM, thanks to the United States. The Warzone sums up the importance of the Javelin, which made its battlefield debut in November 2021.
The Javelin is a very capable man-portable guided anti-tank missile that can either be fired straight at a target or via a pop-up maneuver, after which it dives down onto the target. This latter mode of operation is valuable for engaging tanks and other armored vehicles, which typically have more limited armor protection on top, as well as various targets situated behind hard cover
Here is a video from Ukraine in 2018 of the first firing of a Javelin missile. Notice the flight of the missile, it travels high then strikes downward.
Destroying the Cage
On 2021-12-23 Ukrainian Joint Forces fired a Javelin ATGM at a tank with abnormal armor. The live-fire exercise left the tank crumbled and smoldering. Although the Warzone reminds us that:
The target tank looks too old and weak for battlefield use
The cage’s primary defense mission is against drones, not ATGM
The video has a propaganda purpose outside of any military purpose
Only time will tell if Ukraine successfully turned the table.