Battlefield Update
Another week passed with Russia unable to make major battlefield changes. I will use this time to point out a discrepancy in the battlefield maps. The map produced by the UK Ministry of Defense shows Russia controlling the highway connecting Sumy to Kyiv.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) created a competing map of the Ukrainian conflict. In their map they utilize red solid lines to depict areas Russia controls and red dashes to depict areas Russia attacked but does not control. According to ISW, Russia conducted attacks along that road, but they do not control it.
Fluidity and uncertainty describes the battlefield, and I offer my thanks to the UK Ministry of Defense and ISW for their tireless work in creating the war maps. Our recap will further discuss the battlefield, but first we must discuss China.
Sanctioning Our Allies?
Why am I discussing China? Because our sanctions enacted against Russia may hurt our anti-China alliance. The United States leads a group of countries called The Quad (United States, Australia, India, and Japan). These three countries form a triangle spanning the Indian and Pacific Ocean, our main area of concern regarding China.
India and Japan, arguably our two most important allies in the region, continue to grow their navies. India plans on fielding three aircraft carriers by the 2030’s and Japan will eventually fly 5th generation F-35Bs from their aircraft carriers. (If you want more information regarding the importance of 5th generation aircraft, check out this previous Infrared Line article) The US Navy will need the help of both India’s and Japan’s navies to contain the rise of China.
According to ISW, Japan and India continue their economic relations with Russia despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Japan will continue to cooperate with Russia on nuclear energy and India may increase its import of Russian oil. The United States Senate will consider a resolution to expand the list of sanctioned Russian banks to include previously excluded banks. ISW reports
If passed, the resolution would likely disrupt other countries’ vital energy imports from Russia. Initial US sanctions on Russian banks excluded Gazprombank to allow gas imports to US allies and partners.
I understand the importance of preventing Russia from taking over Kyiv, but I categorize China as a bigger threat than Russia. If these sanctions negatively hurt India and/or Japan then I disfavor them. The United States still possesses many avenues to help Ukraine, but I advocate that we take sanctions which may harm allies and fighter jets off the table.
A Farewell to (4th Gen) Jets
This war may show the limits of 4th generation fighter jets. Last Week’s Recap discussed a potential deal to transfer 4th generation Polish MiGs to Ukraine. On March 16 Ukrainian President Voldormir Zelensky continued to beg the US Congress to implement a no fly zone (which would be enforced by mostly 4th generation fighter jets). Luckily for Zelensky, neither action appears necessary as both Russian and Ukrainian air forces demonstrate extreme caution. Tara Copp of Defense One reports
Russia has surface-to-air missiles, or SAMs, in enough locations that it can shoot down Ukrainian jets in almost all parts of the country, and Ukrainians have held their jets back….
But the Russians are also being cautions, keeping their own aircraft outside of Ukraine and launching long-range missiles from fighter jets and bombers outside of Ukraine’s borders instead.
I can understand why Ukraine would only fly 5-10 combat missions per day, but I cannot understand why Russia conducts most of their combat missions within Russian airspace. David Roza of Task & Purpose sheds light on this question by reporting that Russian military leadership
“considers the VKS (Russian Air Force) for something like ‘extended range artillery,’” meaning it’s focused on providing close air support well within 100 miles of the front lines, Cooper wrote, not deep into enemy territory as the U.S. Air Force is trained to do.
“For this reason, the VKS has a purely supportive role, through and through: it is meant to — and equipped to — establish air superiority only over the frontlines, and then support ground or naval forces,” Cooper explained.
This caught me by surprise, I assumed the Russian air force would operate like the US Air Force and prioritize controlling the full airspace. The United States Air Force figured this out back in World War II, apparently the Russians refused to learn the valuable lesson of air superiority.
From the Pacific island-hopping campaign of World War II to the success of coalition forces in Operations ODYSSEY DAWN and UNIFIED PROTECTOR (Libya) in 2011 and through today, air superiority has been and remains an essential precondition to successful military operations.
The Russian Air Force’s job just became harder, Slovakia indicated their willingness to send their S-300 air defense system to Ukraine. I am ready to conclude that 4th generation fighter jets cannot contend with S-300 air defense systems. Unfortunately for Russia, the Slovakian S-300s are not the only new weapon shipment they should fear.
Switchblades
Jack Detsch of Foreign Policy reported that the US will send another shipment of weapons to Ukraine, but one line item caught my eye.
Jack revealed the Switchblade as the Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems destined to Ukraine. The Switchblade is a light, easy to use drone that contains both a camera and a warhead. They can conduct both surveillance and strike missions. Switchblades launch from a tube like a mortar and remains controllable during flight by a soldier using a tablet.
AeroVironment, the manufacturer of the The Switchblade, created two versions of the drone. They market the older, smaller drone (Switchblade 300) differently than its newer, bigger counterpart (Switchblade 600). AeroVironment produced a video illustrating their vision for the Switchblade 300’s usage. They demonstrated how one needs to pair the Switchblade 300 with a long range Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) drone for maximum effectiveness.
Why would one need to pair the Switchblade 300 with an ISR drone? The Switchblade 300 features a limited range of 10 kilometers and can only fly for 15 minutes. AeroVironment improved the endurance of their drone products by creating the Switchblade 600 which features a range of 40 kilometers and can fly for 40 minutes. One can illustrate the importance of the Switchblade 600’s extended range by examining Russia’s artillery positions near Kyiv.
ISW reported that Russia is advancing towards Kyiv within range of their howitzers. Once the Russians achieve this goal, they can bombard Kyiv with this deadly weapon. The howitzer depicted in the photo below can launch bombardments up to 25 kilometers away.
This means if a team wants to strike at the howitzers with the Switchblade 300 (10 kilometer range), they need to move within the effective range of the howitzer. But, if they use the Switchblade 600 (40 kilometer range) they can strike from a position outside of the howitzer’s range. Satellite photos from Maxar Technologies show Russian howitzer positions surrounded by makeshift trenches and fortifications.
This leaves us with a few questions.
Of the drones we are sending, what is the breakdown between Switchblade 300s and Switchblade 600s?
If we are sending the Switchblade 300 are we also sending ISR drones to pair with them?
This concludes our third weekly recap