Amphibious warfare
The word amphibious describes an entity pertaining to both land and water, amphibious warfare consists of transporting soldiers to land from water. The Trojan War, fought in 1200 BC, featured the first amphibious invasion. Wooden ships carried the Greek army across the Aegean sea to reach the land of their enemies, Troy. Over 3,000 years later amphibious warfare ships carry the Russian army from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea to reach the land of their enemies, Ukraine.
Russia on the High Seas
The Russian journey began on January 18 as six amphibious warfare ships left the Baltic Sea.
The ships entered the western end of the Mediterranean Sea on January 27.
By February 4 they reached the Russian controlled Syrian port of Tartus.
On February 9 the six ships entered the Black Sea, giving the Russian Navy access to Crimea and the Donbas, the most probable invasion targets.
While President Biden confidently predicts Russian will invade Kiev, I focus my concern on southeastern Ukraine. A map created by the Center for Defense Strategies shows updated Russian troop positions on Ukraine’s border. Russia’s 87 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) contains ~150,000 soldiers, nearly half (41 out of 87) of whom are located near Crimea and the Donbas. Those 41 BTG’s may stretch Ukraine’s armed forces too thin to adequately defend against an amphibious invasion through the Sea of Azov.
Adding Russia’s amphibious warfare ships in transit to the assets located in Russia’s Black Sea fleet reveals an amphibious landing force of ~3,700 troops and 133 tanks. They can establish beachheads along the coast of the Sea of Azov and make life hell for the Ukrainian armed forces.
Queen, or a Pawn?
I understand no NATO member state possesses the political will to endanger their sons and daughters to defend Ukraine. But, if NATO wanted to deter Russia from launching an amphibious invasion, aircraft carriers would lead the charge. In late January NATO conducted a military exercise called Neptune 22 featuring the three aircraft carriers displayed below.
French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle
Italian aircraft carrier Cavour
American aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman
Aircraft carriers embody the queen on the naval chessboard. We can judge the power of the three queens by analyzing the aircraft they carry, but this analysis leads us to judge some of these queens as merely pawns.
A2/AD
America’s Great Power rivals, Russia and China, implement a strategy called Anti-Access and Area Denial (A2/AD). This strategy allows Russia and China to create geographical zones too dangerous for American armed forces to intervene. Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile system (SAM) highlights their A2/AD strategy.
Russia’s S-400 SAM precludes many US fighter jets from intervening in Russia’s A2/AD zones. Russia installed these systems systems in Crimea after their successful invasion in 2014, thus creating an A2/AD zone outside the reach of older U.S. fighter jets. The red circles on the map below demonstrates that Russia’s A2/AD zone covers most of the Black Sea.
Stealth
Russia’s A2/AD zone forces its adversaries to prioritize stealth, the ability to hide from the S-400’s radar. The US Navy currently employs two combat aircraft, the 4th generation F/A-18 and the 5th generation F-35. 5th generation aircraft prioritize stealth which differentiates them from their 4th generation counterparts. The US Navy currently operates over 500 4th generation F/A-18’s and less than 20 5th generation F-35’s.
The American USS Harry Truman currently employs the 4th generation F/A-18 and the French Charles De Gaulle uses the 4th generation Rafale. According to Newsweek’s David Brennan, the F-35 is much more likely to accomplish its mission against an A2/AD zone compared to the F-18
While U.S. fifth generation fighter jets, such as the F-35 and its variants, have been designed with the S-400's capabilities in mind, older U.S. warplanes like the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet would struggle to slip through the system's net.
Our analysis exposes the American and French aircraft carriers to be merely pawns, but reveals the queenly statue of the Italian aircraft carrier Cavour.
Italy’s Queen
Of the trio of carriers I mentioned earlier, the Italian Cavour impresses the least. The Cavour displaces around ~20K tonnes, while the Charles De Gaulle displaces ~40K tonnes, and the USS Harry Truman displaces ~100K tonnes. Despite the diminutive stature of the Italian aircraft carrier, it boasts the 5th generation F-35. If I needed to deploy aircraft from our trio of carriers to penetrate Russia’s A2AD zone, I would first call upon the Italian Cavour’s F-35s .
Rethinking Our Power
I believe Americans misperceive the power of their aircraft carriers. Only one of the nine Naval Carrier Air Wings operates the 5th generation F-35, which they proceeded to crash during its recent deployment in the South China Sea. The vast majority of the aircraft launching from our carriers remain vulnerable to A2/AD zones. Keep this in mind when you read about the deployment of US Navy aircraft carriers. They hold far fewer queens in their hand than one would expect.