Warzone Ukraine: Week 1 Recap
Russia Advances Forward
Before And After
On February 24, 2022 The Russian Federation proved me wrong by launching a full scale invasion into Ukraine. To begin our recap, lets examine a pre-war map of Ukraine depicting Russian held territory shaded in Red and Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) deployed to Ukraine’s border. I delineated five grouping of BTGs based on a map from the United Kingdom (UK) Defense Intelligence which I will reveal shortly.
Despite the bravery and courage of the Ukrainian warriors, Russia made considerable progress during its first week of war. Comparing my pre-war map to the UK’s Defense Intelligence's current map reveals that progress. Using this map, we will analyze the movement of the five previously mentioned groupings of BTGs.
Southern MD & Airborne Grouping
We begin with the first contingent from the Southern MD. They appear to be advancing towards three different cities (Mariupol, Dnipro, and Odessa)
The Southern MD & Airborne Grouping will eventually capture Mariupol. The successful completion of this task connects The Donbas to Crimea via land and blocks Ukraine’s access to the Sea of Azov, therefore partially blocking Ukraine from accessing the Black Sea.
Shifting our focus west, if the Southern MD & Airborne Grouping captures Odessa then Russia will completely block Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. This action would effectively turn Ukraine into a land-locked country.
Lastly, the Southern MD & Airborne Grouping also advanced towards northwards towards Dnipro. Why advance to Dnipro? I believe they intend to cut off the Ukrainian forces fighting in the The Donbas and leave them stranded.
Southern MD Grouping
Russian backed separatists did not capture the full area of the Donbas in 2014 and Ukrainian soldiers continued to fight them. Armies along the border launched attacks on each other regularly before the recent invasion.
The second set of soldiers from Russia’s Southern MD deployed to reinforce Russian separatists in The Donbas. I expected the them to capture the remaining territory in The Donbas still held by Ukrainian forces. To my surprise, again, Russia chose a different tact. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated
Russian forces have achieved little success through frontal assaults or envelopments against Ukrainian forces in Donbas but may not have intended to do more than pin Ukrainian forces in the east.
Unfortunately, I agree with the ISW’s analysis. The map below shows three highways that the Ukrainians can use to escape back to Kyiv. Russia already blocks the Upper Highway leading to Kharkiv, capturing Zaporizhzhia closes the Lower highway while capturing Dnipro closes the Middle Highway. This action would sever the land connection between Kyiv and its forces fighting Russian separatists in The Donbas.
Western MD Grouping
The Western MD Grouping failed in their task to capture cities in Northeast Ukraine. As a result, their forces split up. One set of soldiers pushed eastward and now blocks Ukraine’s access out of The Donbas through the Upper Highway.
The other set of soldiers from the Western MD Grouping pushed westward to towards Kyiv. They reinforce the eastern flank of a pincer movement being performed by our final two MD groupings.
Central MD Grouping
The Central MD Grouping forms the backbone of the eastern flank of the pincer movement. They attempted to capture nearby cities, but failed like the solders of the Western MD Grouping. The soldiers subsequently decided to converge down two highways towards the eastern bank of Kyiv.
Eastern MD & Airborne Grouping
Our final grouping forms the western flank of the Kyiv pincer movement. Originally stationed in Belarus, these troops advanced forward and reached the suburbs of Kyiv.
Key Things to Watch
Will the Southern MD & Airborne Grouping capture Mariupol, Dnipro, and Odessa?
Will the Southern MD Grouping continue to pin down Ukrainian forces fighting in The Donbas?
How far does the pincer movement on Kyiv proceed?
This concludes the first weekly recap