Institute for the Study of War
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) delivered a report intended to predict Putin’s likely course of action vis-à-vis Ukraine. I will discuss three forecasts in the report: an invasion to conquer Ukraine, an air and missile campaign against Ukraine, and a minor incursion into Ukraine.
An Ukrainian on every roof
Russia will not conduct a full mechanized invasion to conquer all of Ukraine this winter. - ISW Report
I agree with the ISW report. On December 15, 2021 Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine's Secretary of the Security and Defense Council, proved his point in an interview with Reuters. He stated Russia will need between 500K-600K troops to occupy and hold the country, but Russia has currently amassed less than 150K troops. Why would Russia require so many troops? Because Ukraine is ready to fight. Leon Aron, director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute, clarified this notion in an interview on The Remnant.
[Ukraine] is a country of hunters. They have over four million, largely unregistered weapons…..Imagine urban centers of two to three million people, with everybody shooting from the roof, throwing bombs, throwing grenades.
Unfortunately Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto probably never said "You cannot invade mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind each blade of grass." But the sentiment behind that apocryphal quote remains true for America, and it appears true for Ukraine as well.
Bombs Away
Russia may launch an air and missile campaign throughout unoccupied Ukraine - ISW Report
The report introduced this novel prediction and provides further details of the proposed plan.
Russian air, long-range artillery, and missile units would strike Ukrainian command-and-control elements, weapons depots, high-end systems, and some front-line units for a considerable distance into unoccupied Ukraine
…fighter-bombers staging from bases around northern Ukraine, Crimea, and Belarus; and intermediate-range missiles (such as the Iskander) would attack deeper into Ukraine.
I surmise this course of action intends to degrade Ukraine’s ability to repel future Russian aggression, therefore increasing the likelihood Ukraine will capitulate to Russian demands. The only plausible method to deter an air and missile campaign from Russian forces is to deploy air and missile defense systems to Ukraine. These complicated systems require US soldiers to correctly operate. Nevertheless, I would deploy US air and missile defense systems to test their efficacy in live battle, although I understand the US public disagrees with me. I am glad to see that our THAAD missile defense system destroyed one ballistic missile launched by the Houthis, but I am curious as to its performance versus dozens of missiles.
Minor Incursion
Russia may conduct limited ground incursions north and west from occupied Donbas and/or north from Crimea. - ISW Report
I am betting on this scenario, Putin successfully completed two minor incursions during his time as Russia’s de-facto czar. He defeated his first target, Georgia, by taking South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008. He then seized two areas of Ukraine, Crimea and the Donbas, in 2014.
I see two potential avenues for a minor incursion. First, Putin may try to capture the remaining area in the Donbas not under his control. We forget that the Russian backed separatists did not capture the full area of the Donbas in 2014. On the map of the Donbas below, Russian-backed separatists control the red area while Ukrainian forces hold the yellow and blue area.
Second, Russia may try to capture vital real estate north of Crimea. Russia accuses Ukraine of blocking the North Crimea Canal, the main source of water for Crimea. Russia included this accusation in a filing against Ukraine to the European Court of Human Rights. Russia would only need to advance ~30 miles north to secure the water supply for Crimea.
Six amphibious warfare ships left Russia and reached the Russian port facility in the Syrian city of Tartus. The curved red line on map below illustrates the close proximity of these amphibious warfare ships to the Black Sea where they can provide major assistance for a potential minor incursion of Ukraine.
Ukraine Grabs the Reigns
In December 2021, President Biden stated that the US will not provide troops to defend Ukraine. Fortunately Ukraine proactively plans their defense.
Ukraine and Turkey agreed to build a Bayraktar TB2 drone factory outside of the capital of Ukraine, Kiev. In the near future Britain, Poland, and Ukraine will sign a trilateral security pact, similar to AUKUS. While Ukraine waits for its new treaty, Eastern Europe continues to step to the plate. Poland will send drones and Man Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS) to Ukraine. (Note: MANPADS is my favorite military acronym). Latvia and Lithuania will also send US made Stinger MANPADS while Estonia will send Javelin anti-tank missiles.
(Both the Bayraktar TB2 and Javelin were previously discussed in Infrared Line)
As Ukraine takes decisive action to control its future, we will soon see if they successfully secured their country’s independence.