I took Model UN seriously during college. When I represented a country, I dissolved my personality to the best of my ability so that I could faithfully represent the interest of my assigned country. For example, in crisis committees I represented the head of artillery for the Confederate States of America, the head of submarines for Nazi Germany, and the head of nuclear forces of the Soviet Union. This skill allows me to empathize and understand countries that I consider enemies. I will now put my skills on display as I inhabit the soul of an advisor for Putin.
Political Objective: Take the Donbas
President Putin, Before the beginning of this recent conflict brought upon us by the West, I wrote an internal memo detailing our potential war plans. I argued that we should enact a minor incursion into south and east Ukraine. I am glad to see that you, President Putin, agree with my outlook. As your strategy for taking eastern Ukraine unfolds, I offer a competing strategy for how we should prosecute this war.
On March 25 TASS reported our narrative for invading Ukraine. Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy stated
Russia initially did not plan to storm the blocked Ukrainian cities, now the main task is the complete liberation of Donbass, the colonel general said.
While Ukrainian forces pushed us back in the north, a large subset of Ukrainian troops continues to fight our besieged brethren in The Donbas. After the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) declared independence in 2014, Ukraine began military operations against those entities. That mission, once comically called an Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO), continues as the Joint Forces Operation (JFO). In order to capture the Donbas, we need to defeat the Ukrainian JFO.
Emerging Military Plan: Surround Rubizhne
For the past two weeks we our forces launched skirmishes in the same three areas; southeast from Izium, southwest towards Rubizhne, and west towards Popasna.
If our forces in Izium take Sloviansk and continue southeast down the highway and our comrades advancing west capture Popasna and continue westward then they can meet in Bakhmut. This result of this plan leaves the Ukrainian JFO holding the line in Rubizhne stranded from their genocidal compatriots.
If this plan works, we will be able to take the rest of Luhansk Oblast and some extra territory in Donestk Oblast. That result remains insufficient for you, President Putin, because liberating the Donbas also means liberating all of Donestk.
We amassed 22 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) around Izium. Those 22 BTG’s will advance towards both Sloviansk and Barvinkove. I think they would perform better by marching towards Barvinkove and forgetting about Sloviansk for now.
For comparison, we stationed 25 BTGs stationed in Crimea at the start of the war. Those BTGs captured the Kherson Oblast and most of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. If 25 BTGs performed that well then I expect 22 BTGs in Izium can faithfully execute my plan: surround the entire JFO.
My Plan: Surround the Entire JFO
President Putin, the Ukrainian JFO fights along the border of our brothers in Donetsk as well as our brothers in Luhansk. The current military plan aims to cut off supply lines to Ukrainians fighting in Luhansk. We should think bigger and cut off supplies to the JFO fighting in Donetsk as well. In a previous memo I created a map depicting the highways available to supply the JFO fighting in both Donetsk and Luhansk.
My map lacked one detail, rail. Ukrainian rail lines are vital to keeping supply lines open. Luckily for us, a Ukrainian rail line runs from Izium south along the western border of the Donetsk Oblast.
By marching southward through Barvinkove and subsequent cities, our brave men can ensure that the Nazi JFO troops fighting in the east cannot be easily resupplied through the existing major highways.
Not only does my plan block highway access to the JFO, it also blocks rail access. This will make it incredibly difficult for the Nazis and drug addicts in Kyiv to resupply the Ukrainians in the east.
My plan would result in capturing the full extent of The Donbas’s borders. We can then slowly strangle the rest of the Ukrainian troops in due time. President Putin, this would satisfy your goal of liberating The Donbas before the May 9th Victory Day Parade.
For the sake of Ukraine, I hope Putin ignores my advice.