Throughout Russia’s invasion of Ukraine I attempted to predict what would happen next. Now is a good time to review my predictions and catalog my accurate and inaccurate predictions.
Reviewing My Record
While I inaccurately predicted that Russia would not launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine, I correctly predicted that a full scale invasion of Ukraine stood no chance of success. Three weeks before Russia’s invasion I wrote
On December 15, 2021 Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine's Secretary of the Security and Defense Council, proved his point in an interview with Reuters. He stated Russia will need between 500K-600K troops to occupy and hold the country, but Russia has currently amassed less than 150K troops.
What started out as a mad dash to capture Ukraine’s capital turned into a long slog to seize The Donbas and lands that Putin calls Novorossiya (New Russia). Also three weeks before Russia’s recent invasion I predicted that Russia would try to capture the rest of The Donbas and push towards the Dnieper River to secure Crimea’s water supply.
I see two potential avenues for a minor incursion. First, Putin may try to capture the remaining area in the Donbas not under his control…..
Second, Russia may try to capture vital real estate north of Crimea. Russia accuses Ukraine of blocking the North Crimea Canal, the main source of water for Crimea.
While Putin confirmed my predictions by attempting to capture the rest of The Donbas, I did not predict that Russia would try to secure a land bridge to Crimea which included Novorossiya. Before Ukraine’s recent counter-offensive I also predicted that Ukraine would successfully push Russia to the east bank of the Dnieper river.
Russia will probably not be able to hold their position on the west bank of the Dnieper River, but I do not think Ukraine will be able to push their offensive east of the river.
While Ukraine continues to make gains in its offensive, they have not yet pushed Russian forces to the east bank of the Dnieper river. We will see if my prediction bears fruit.
Now I must detail a prediction that I got massively wrong. Ukraine’s wildly successful offensive in Kharkiv surprised me. I predicted that no large scale offensive would occur without the introduction of new technologies and tactics.
My original prediction remains, large scale offensives remain out of reach from both armies until the introduction of new technology and tactics which enables maneuver.
I did not consider that Russia would overstretch itself and lack the capability to defend its captured territories. We will see if both Russia and I learn from our mistakes.
Victory Predictions
In describing Russia’s defeat in Kharkiv I stated
I do not see either Russia or Ukraine achieving their military aims absent air supremacy.
I stand by my prediction, both sides still profess unachievable war aims. As Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in his address to the Russian nation on September 21, Russia’s war aim still includes the supposed “denazification“ of Ukraine
The subject of this address is the situation in Donbass and the course of the special military operation to liberate it from the neo-Nazi regime, which seized power in Ukraine in 2014 as the result of an armed state coup.
Ukraine’s goal includes capturing all territory taken by Russia beginning from Russia’s first invasion in 2014. On October 4, Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak told CNN
We are for western values. We want to liberate all of our territory. All the threats by the Russian Federation will not stop Ukraine in order to liberate our territory ... including the occupied territories from back in 2014
I do not see either of these two war aims successfully prosecuted unless one side gains air superiority. Until then I believe this war will either continue until one side become exhausted or end with both sides entering into a negotiated solution.
Watch out for Belarus
Part of Russia’s thunder-run to Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, began in Belarus. Russia attempted to close in on Kiev from the east and the west. Forces attacking from the east advanced from Russia while forces attacking from the west advanced from Belarus. After Russia withdrew from attacking Kiev Belarus lost its importance in the war, until now.
Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko stated on March 4, 2022 (only two weeks after Russia began its invasion) that Belarusian troops will not take part in Russia’s invasion. I can reasonably assume that Putin spent the last seven months twisting Lukashenko’s arm to get him to commit his troops to Putin’s war. On October 14 The Telegraph reported that Russian and Belarusian soldiers are currently stationed along the border between Belarus and Ukraine.
We can see Russian media apparatus lay the groundwork for reopening the western front in Ukraine. TASS, a leading Russian state media organization, reported on its Russian language website that Belarus initiated a ‘counter terrorist operation‘ within Belarus. They also reported comments made by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko suggesting that western countries are actively planning an attack on Belarus.
On October 10, Lukashenka said at a security conference that in Ukraine today "they are not just discussing, but planning to strike" on the territory of his state. He noted that, although the Ukrainians "absolutely do not need this", they are "pushed by the owners to unleash a war against Belarus" in order to draw the Belarusians into the conflict, "to deal with Russia and Belarus at the same time.
Translation by Google Translate
Will Belarus allow its soldiers to fight against Ukraine? Russia and Belarus have opened the door to draw Belarusian troops into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We will see if Putin walks through that door.