Warzone Ukraine: Diplomacy or Deterrence?
How about Both?
Reality On The Ground
The military reality on the ground sets the parameters of any conflict. Russian forces and Russian-backed separatists changed that military reality in 2014 by taking control of two areas of Ukraine
Crimea - Russian forces annexed Crimea, home of the Sevastopol Naval Base
The Donbass - Two groups of Russian-backed separatists took control the Donbass, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic
The unlabeled area is Transnistria, a breakaway province in Moldova.
Pictured below is a snapshot of the Ukrainian reality on the ground.
On November 20, 2021, The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense gave the Military Times a map highlighting their assessment of Russian troop movement near Ukraine. One should note that Russia located 28 out of its 40 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) near the Crimea and the Donbass, areas controlled by Russia or Russian-backed forces. An analysis by US intelligence corroborates this map.
Russia’s aggressive behavior sets the stage for the recent talks.
We Need To Talk
The United States diplomatic engagement with Russia disintegrated last weekend. The head of the Russian delegation, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, proclaimed
I do not see reasons to sit down in the coming days, to gather again and start these same discussions
This outcome should surprise no one. Maria Zakharova, Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson, presented Russia’s demands weeks earlier on December 30, 2021
During the talks we will seek firm legal guarantees on Russia's security from the U.S. side, namely that NATO will not move eastwards and that weapons systems threatening Russia will not be deployed near our borders
The US Secretary of Defense and NATO Secretary General both declared they reject Russia’s terms. Despite Russia’s bellicosity we should negotiate with them, but from a position of strength. The Russians strengthened their position by stationing troops near Ukraine’s border. I would give Ukraine more Stingers and Javelins than they requested then offer to negotiate with Russia, but statements from the Biden administration’s illuminates our disagreement.
Gun To The Head
On December 31, 2021 a Biden administration official bequeathed Russia two options, diplomacy or deterrence. On January 3, 2022 Secretary of State Anthony Blinken accused Russia of preventing a diplomatic solution. This is how Blinken characterized the situation.
It's very hard to make actual progress in any of these areas in an atmosphere of escalation and threat, with a gun pointed to Ukraine's head."
I respectfully disagree with our Secretary of State, pointing a gun at your adversary’s head is a magnificent negotiating tactic. Diplomacy and deterrence are compliments, not substitutes. Unfortunately, Dmitry Kiselev, Putin confident and Russian media mogul, understands this
If Ukraine ever joins NATO or if NATO develops military infrastructure there, we will hold a gun to America’s head. We have the military capability
Diplomacy disconnected from deterrence will lead to unconscionable unilateral concessions. Joe Biden should be aware of this, he was the Vice President during the Iranian negotiations.
Iran Giveaway
In 2017 Politico’s Josh Meyer reported two groundbreaking articles detailing unilateral concessions made by the Obama administration during the Iran negotiations. The first article detailed the administration’s kneecapping of our own investigation into Iran’s weapons proliferation programs. Here is a key paragraph that summarizes the Obama administration’s actions (or lack thereof).
Through action in some cases and inaction in others, the White House derailed its own much-touted National Counterproliferation Initiative at a time when it was making unprecedented headway in thwarting Iran’s proliferation networks. In addition, the POLITICO investigation found that Justice and State Department officials denied or delayed requests from prosecutors and agents to lure some key Iranian fugitives to friendly countries so they could be arrested. Similarly, Justice and State, at times in consultation with the White House, slowed down efforts to extradite some suspects already in custody overseas, according to current and former officials and others involved in the counterproliferation effort.
Later in 2017 Meyer reported that the Obama administration stonewalled Project Cassandra in order to butter up the Iranians. The first paragraph says it all
In its determination to secure a nuclear deal with Iran, the Obama administration derailed an ambitious law enforcement campaign targeting drug trafficking by the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah, even as it was funneling cocaine into the United States, according to a POLITICO investigation.
Why do we offer unilateral concessions while our adversaries do not reciprocate? This is one of the key problems with “Diplomacy or Deterrence”. Neglecting deterrence results in making concessions to your opponents in return for nothing. Neglecting deterrence can also leave weaker allies vulnerable, just ask Eastern Europe.
America, PLEASE HELP!!!
Axios reported the following from an anonymous Biden administration official
One is a "path of diplomacy" leading to de-escalation, while the other was a "path more focused on deterrence" — including massive sanctions and an increase of NATO activity in eastern member states if Russia invades Ukraine
Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia should be furious. These former members of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth share a long history as mere playthings of empires. This is why Eastern Europe is begging NATO for permanent bases. Poland promised it will spend billions of dollars to gain a permanent NATO presence, Lithuania constructed an impressive new base with the explicit goal of bringing in NATO forces, Latvia called for a permanent base along with air and sea defense systems, and Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s prime minister, recently stated
Of course, we are discussing with our allies to increase their presence here to act as a deterrent.
These small Eastern European states correctly fear Putin’s recent comments
After all, what is the collapse of the Soviet Union? This is the collapse of historical Russia under the name of the Soviet Union.
Banging The Drums of War
Many are announcing the increased likelihood of war. Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Advisor observed
The threat of military invasion is high. There are no dates set for any more talks.
NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, also warned of
a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe
Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) informed us
We're facing a crisis in European security. The drumbeat of war is sounding loud
Can you hear the drums? Last weekend a Russian cyberattack disabled 90% of Ukrainian government websites, Microsoft uncovered a destructive malware operation targeting Ukraine, and according to an unnamed US official, Russia prepares the stage for their invasion.
As part of its plans, Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for invasion, including through sabotage activities and information operations, by accusing Ukraine of preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. The Russian military plans to begin these activities several weeks before a military invasion, which could begin between mid-January and mid-February. We saw this playbook in 2014 with Crimea.
For Ukraine’s sake, I hope they are utilizing their new toys effectively.