Freudian Slips
On May 18, 2022 former US President George W Bush gave a speech at his presidential library. In that speech Bush made a Freudian slip while discussing Putin’s invasion of Iraq. In that speech Bush said
The result is an absence of checks and balances in Russia, and the decision of one man to launch a wholly unjustified and brutal invasion of Iraq, I mean, of Ukraine
That reminded me of another slip by a powerful political actor. On February 23, 2022 Russian state media captured an exchange between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his head of foreign intelligence, Sergei Naryshkin. In the exchange Putin berates Naryshkin for not forcefully supporting Russia’s recognition of the independence of the Luhansk Peoples Republic and the Donetsk Peoples Republic, the two Ukrainian breakaway republics supported by the Kremlin.
After Putin berated Naryshkin, a noticeably terrified Naryshkin responded a bit too honestly by stating
I support the proposal to include Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic in the Russian Federation
Putin then smiles and said
We’re not talking about that, it’s not what we discuss. We’re talking about whether to recognize their independence or not
Naryshkin’s Freudian slip leads me to believe that Putin wants to annex all Russian aligned breakaway republics. As I discussed in a previous article, it would behove the West to consider the risks of helping Ukraine recapture their territory which Russia calls its own. Considering the risks of an action requires brutal honesty, and last week made me further question the West’s capacity for brutal honesty.
Non-Military Blockade Running?
The World Food Program estimates that the war in Ukraine will create an acute hunger situation for 47 million people. This shortage could lead weak states like Libya, which rely on Ukraine for 43% of their wheat consumption, to collapse. While Western countries want to help export commodities out of Ukraine, some ideas require further thought.
While I support the EU’s drive to connect Ukrainian wheat to Polish ports via land routes, I urge the West to brutally and honestly consider the implications of trying to break Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine. On May 23, 2022 The Guardian reported that the UK supports a plan created by Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, to break the Russian naval blockade. Landsbergis stated
This would be a non-military humanitarian mission and is not comparable with a no-fly zone, in this endeavour military ships or planes or both would be used to ensure that the grain supplies can leave Odesa safely and reach the Bosphorus without Russian interference.
While trying to stop the starvation of millions of people is undoubtedly moral, breaking a naval blockade is undoubtedly a military mission. Countries involved in breaking the Russian naval blockade should expect the Russian Navy to respond with violence.
If Western countries want to break the Russian naval blockade, one should expect them to plan for a potential military engagement. As I have written previously, the West may struggle to defeat Russian Navy’s in the Black Sea. While we hope this war does not widen to the Black Sea, it has intensified in eastern Ukraine.
War Update
Over a month ago I wrote an article from the perspective of an advisor to President Putin. In that article I outlined a battle plan which would enable Russian forces to satisfy Putin’s political objective of “liberating” The Donbas. In early April Russia appeared to take my advice as they began attacking southward from Izyum. Unfortunately for the Russian forces, progress stalled over the past month and half.
Despite Russia’s inability to push southward from Izyum, others predicted Russia would take this path as well. The Austrian Military has been giving video presentations with (good enough) English subtitles about the war on their YouTube page. The presentation delivered on May 6, 2022 included their prediction of Russia’s battle plan for taking The Donbas.
Their battle plan featured a series of dashed red lines connecting Izyum to Marinka. Their dashed lines correspond with the rail line that I highlighted in my previous article. By placing their dashed red line on my map, it becomes clear that the Austrian military and I were on the same page regarding our expectation of Russia’s military plans.
While the strategy envisioned by both myself and the Austrian military attempted to secure The Donbas for Putin, the Russian military choose a more limited agenda. The Donbas consists of the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblast. Russia is trying to secure the final piece of Luhansk that they do not control. One can see that tiny piece of territory in the map below.
Russia has made considerable progress towards capturing Luhansk. Below compares Russia’s territorial holdings in Luhansk between May 1 and May 29 using maps published by The Institute for the Study of War. We can see that Russia has made a large push west out of Popasna as they prepare to encircle Severodonetsk, the last major city in Luhansk under Ukrainian control.
Will Russia annex the “independent republics“? Will the West try to break Russia’s naval blockade? Will Russia capture Luhansk? Only time will tell.
Warzone Ukraine: Week 13 Update
We could be looking at a war of attrition for YEARS.