Current State of Affairs
When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, US policy entailed ensuring Russian failure in its goal to seize Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv. The battle map of Ukraine shows that Russia abandoned its goal of taking Kyiv and captured two separate areas instead. These include establishing a land bridge between Crimea and The Donbas and capturing an area I call “Greater Donbas“.
The Crimean Land Bridge and the Greater Donbas hosts the majority of the current fight. Ukraine utilized weapons systems like shoulder fire missiles and drones during the beginning of the war. As the war moved to the open terrain of eastern Ukraine, Western countries began sending weaponry suited for that fight.
Heavy Weapons
For Ukraine to recapture lost territory in the east they must go on the offensive backed by heavy weapons. Why are shoulder fired Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM) insufficient for the task? Retired Army colonel David Johnson explains
Dismounted forces with ATGMs were not the vanguards of maneuver, neither in the offense nor in a defense that required rapid movement to survive on an artillery-swept battlefield and to conduct counterattacks to thwart the adversary’s maneuver schemes.
Ever since the middle 1800’s, modern warfare prominently featured artillery. In a battlefield, artillery turns unprotected troops carrying ATGMs into mince meat. These soldiers require the protection of armored vehicles, to move around the battlefield.
On the offense, the tank provided mobile, protected lethality on the battlefield to enable ground-force maneuver.
Tanks traverse vast terrain (mobile), use armor to defend against artillery (protected) and fire devastating projectiles at enemy targets (lethality). Western countries took notice and increased deliveries of tanks and artillery to Ukraine. Last week the WSJ reported that Poland sent 240 T-72 tanks and an undisclosed number of howitzers (artillery) to Ukraine.
The US joined Poland by sending its own howitzers. Last week I discussed the reorganization of the US Marine Corp which included the retirement of most of their howitzers. The tweet below showing US howitzers being sent to Ukraine tags the US Marine Corp. I speculate that the United States sent retired Marine howitzers to Ukraine.
While Ukraine gears up for the next battle, countries that support Ukraine need to define victory in terms of their participation.
Ukraine Defines Their Victory
On May 5, 2022 Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, clarified her country’s victory conditions. These include
pushing all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory — including the Crimean Peninsula and Donbas regions claimed as their territory since 2014.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi recently led a congressional delegation to visit Ukraine. During the trip she stated
We stand with Ukraine until victory is won
Does Speaker Pelosi agree with Ambassador Markarova’s definition of victory? Does President Biden agree? American officials should define their victory conditions soon. Oleksiy Arestovych, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, told Reuters the following
Ukraine is unlikely to launch a counter-offensive in its war with Russia before mid-June, when it hopes to have received more weapons from its allies
This quote indicates that Ukraine plans on taking back land captured by Russian forces. Each country involved in this conflict should define victory conditions by the territory they want to help Ukraine recapture. The first map I disaggregated Russia’s Ukrainian holdings into the following four blocks. The map below shows Russian territorial gains juxtaposed with Ukrainian Oblasts (analogous to county/provinces).
Understanding Russian Territorial Gains
With this information, we will dissect the four groups of territory I described in the beginning of the article. The groups of territory can be classified as war holdings, independent republics, and sovereign territory.
Greater Donbas (War Holding) - Russia captured the Greater Donbas, which spans the Luhansk and Kharkiv Oblast, during its current invasion. Ukrainian forces recently began taking back portions of this area. Does Russia plan on annexing the Greater Donbas, or will governing authorities of The Donbas incorporate the Greater Donbas into their territory?
The Donbas (Independent Republic) - Two Russian aligned independent republics, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), currently govern this area. Russia formally recognized the independence of the DPR and LPR days before the recent war. To what lengths will Putin go to defend against Ukrainian attacks on the DPR and LPR?
Crimean Land Bridge (War Holding) - Russia quickly captured this territory, which spans the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donestk Oblast, during the beginning of the current war. Ukrainian forces have launched brief counterattacks against the western portion of the land bridge. The fate of these Russian gains remain unknown. Rumors have abounded for weeks regarding a referendum to create a new Russian aligned independent republic, the Kherson People’s Republic. One wonders if the same fate awaits Zaporizhzhia.
Crimea (Sovereign Territory) - Russia annexed Crimea into the Russian Federation on March 18, 2014. Crimea hosts Sevastopol, ensuring Russian access to the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Red Sea. Without Sevastopol Russia will find it hard to project power into the the Middle East, North Africa, and East Africa. Russia previously threatened the use of nuclear weapons to defend Crimea from Ukrainian counterattacks.
Questions
This leaves me with two questions
Will Russia threaten the use of nuclear weapons to defend war holdings and independent republics?
Will Putin aim his nukes solely at Ukraine?
We do not know the answers, but I hope American officials discuss these subjects before Ukraine’s offensive.