Two weeks ago I demonstrated how Putin’s speech, where he threatened the use of nuclear weapons, closely follows Russian nuclear doctrine. For brevity’s sake I shortened a quote from our experts, Kofman and Fink, but this week we will explore the portion bolded below that I left out.
Can Russia find itself fighting a war that it perceives to be defensive in nature, and then resort to nuclear first use as the conflict escalates? Absolutely, but this proposition assumes a host of military and nonmilitary actions taken on both sides prior to nuclear escalation, rather than an attempt at preemptive nuclear coercion.
The key phrase is escalation. Famed nuclear war theorist Herman Kahn coined the term Escalation Ladder. This ladder contains 44 rungs to visualize how a crisis between nuclear powers can spiral into a nuclear war. While this Cold War image needs updating, the metaphor of a ladder serves well to understand an adversary’s nuclear signaling.
To show Russia’s progression upwards on the ladder of escalation I examined words and actions from two different time periods, the beginning of the Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of the partial mobilization.
Beginning of War
On February 21, 2022 Putin delivered a speech which signaled Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In this speech he accused Ukraine of trying to build a nuclear weapon or acquire one from The West.
As we know, it has already been stated today that Ukraine intends to create its own nuclear weapons
We cannot but react to this real danger, all the more so since, let me repeat, Ukraine’s Western patrons may help it acquire these [nuclear] weapons to create yet another threat to our country.
Putin uses his allegation that Ukraine desires a nuclear weapon to justify his nuclear threats. Three days later on the start of the invasion (February 24, 2022) Putin delivered his first nuclear threat.
No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history. No matter how the events unfold, we are ready. All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope that my words will be heard.
We have now climbed one rung up the escalation ladder. Three days later on February 27, 2022 Putin climbed another rung up the ladder by placing his nuclear forces on high alert. Putin used this round of escalation to ward off those who may ‘try to stand in his way.’ I believe Putin’s nuclear escalation limited the weapons that the U.S. felt comfortable sending to Ukraine. We can note the failure to transfer Polish MiGs, send U.S. ATACMS missiles, and provide U.S. THAAD anti-missile systems.
The nuclear signaling died down for over half a year until Putin announced the partial mobilization.
Partial Mobilization
On September 21, 2022 Putin addressed his nation announcing the partial mobilization of Russia to support his failing war effort. Two weeks ago I featured a quote where Putin made his most serious nuclear threat to date. I will now highlight another portion of that quote. While the nuclear threat itself shows that Russia climbed one more rung on the ladder of escalation, the ‘territorial integrity’ comment highlights another rung climbed.
In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.
Nine days later, September 30, 2022, Putin announced that the territories captured by Russia (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) successfully held “referendums“ resulting in their citizens voting to join Russia. Of course the threat to Russian territorial integrity includes the territory of Russia, but what about annexed territories? Russia threatened the use of nuclear weapons to defend Crimea, annexed in 2014, but does this threat also apply the newly annexed territories? We received confirmation, also on September 30, that all newly incorporated lands will fall under Russia’s nuclear shield.
The combination of Putin’s ‘territorial integrity’ comment and nuclear threat gives him the green light to use Russia’s nuclear shield to defend Russia’s newly acquired territories. Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of the Russian region of Chechnya, believes it is time to apply the nuclear shield. On October 1st, 2022 he stated
In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons.
Why does it matter what Kadyrov says? According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Kadyrov represents an important member of the siloviki, one of the three influential groups duking it out in Russia’s information space. What was the response of the Russian military establishment to Kadyrov’s statement? They promoted him to Major General four days later on October 5, 2022. These actions lead me to conclude that Russia climbed one more rung up the escalation ladder.
Conclusion
Also on October 5 Polish President Andrzej Duda requested the U.S. to base nuclear weapons in his country. This gives Putin the pretext to climb another rung up the escalation ladder. How many more rungs until we reach the top? One does not know until a mushroom cloud appears.