Americans have accustomed ourselves to U.S. naval domination of the world’s oceans. Dominating the world’s oceans allows us to enforce our (good) global trade rules. China does not like our rules and would like to impose its own (bad) rules on the world. To stop this from occurring America needs to prevent China from establishing military bases in the Pacific Island nations and craft a plan in case China successfully builds those bases.
China first attempted to impose its rules on the world by claiming the entire South China Sea as Chinese sovereign waters. To put this preposterous claim in context, under current U.S. led rules each country claims 12 nautical miles from their coast as sovereign waters. China’s claim, represented by their nine-dash line, leads to China claiming sovereign waters 1,000 miles away from China.
In 2016, a UN court ruled against the legality of China’s nine-dash line. In response, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China does not “accept or recognize” the ruling. This is how China acts, violate U.S. led rules and if someone calls you out, simply ignore them. China currently possesses the power to act this way in the South China Sea because the surrounding countries (Vietnam, Indonesia, The Philippines, Taiwan, etc) lack the power to push back.
Unlike those nations, America can push back. The defeat of Imperial Japan in WWII left the U.S. as the supreme power in the Pacific Ocean. China’s shipbuilding bonanza will lead to them building the first navy since Imperial Japan that can credibly challenge U.S. Naval supremacy in the Pacific. We must never allow China to become a Pacific power, which entails preventing China from establishing military bases in the Pacific Island nations. Ever since WWII those island nations ally with the U.S., but this appears to be changing.
Solomon Island Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare continues to gravitate towards China’s orbit. His government allows China to train Solomon Island police forces and construct Huawei cell towers. But these do not represent the height of Sogavare’s betrayal. In August 2022, U.S. officials visited the Solomon Islands for the anniversary of the gruesome WWII naval battle of Guadalcanal. Prime Minister Sogavare refused to attend the ceremony. To add insult to injury Sogavare refused to allow a U.S. Coast Guard Cutter to make a routine port stop in the Solomon Islands.
The actions I described confirms the Solomon Island’s movement towards China. I fear that the trajectory of this relationship will lead to the Solomon Islands hosting Chinese military bases. This leads to a follow-up question, why do Chinese military bases in the Pacific Islands threaten U.S. security?
General Omar Bradley said, “Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.” As in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, logistics make or break war efforts. Defense writers wrote numerous articles over the years warning that in a naval conflict with China the U.S. Navy cannot provide escorts to U.S. naval supply ships. That means that our logistic ships will traverse 5,000 miles across the Pacific Ocean unguarded.
As of now these ships present juicy targets to Chinese submarines, but the situation becomes more tenuous if China gains military bases in the Pacific Islands. From those bases China can send surface ships, airplanes, and land based missiles along with the aforementioned submarines to attack our supply convoys. If we cannot re-supply our forces then America cannot use her power to stop China from imposing its will on the Pacific Ocean.
What would China imposing its will look like? Hu Xijin, the former editor of Global Times (a prominent Chinese propaganda outlet), stated that he expects China to blockade Taiwan similar to how China encircled Beijing in 1949 to force its surrender in China’s civil war. If China takes this route, then the U.S. will be forced to either acquiesce to Taiwan’s surrender or break the blockade. Breaking the blockade will necessitate the U.S. Navy successfully re-supplying their vessels for a period of time measured in months and years. This article should place doubts on the U.S. Navy’s ability to accomplish this.
So is all hope lost? No! Robert Haddick suggested that instead of leading with the U.S. Navy in the Pacific, we should lead with the U.S. Air Force, specifically our bombers. The U.S. employs a diverse bomber fleet capable of being filled to the brim with Long Range Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (LRASM). Those LRASMs will allow the U.S. Air Force, from a safe distance, to send China’s Navy to Davey Jones’s Locker. America possesses hundreds of LRASMs, but we will need several thousands to contend with China. While this problem seems difficult, it is far easier to solve than building enough ships to escort our supply ships across the Pacific Ocean.
In conclusion, America needs to plan for China’s attempt to control the Pacific Ocean. To stop this, America needs to ensure that China does not create military bases in the Pacific Island nations. Those bases will allow China to threaten our supply convoys which will thwart any American attempt to stop China’s nefarious actions. But, building enough LRASMs could mitigate the danger from China’s potential Pacific Island military bases. To ensure that U.S. approved commercial rules persist in the Pacific Ocean we need to both persuade Pacific Island nations to not allow China to set up military bases and build enough LRASMs in case those nations fall into Beijing’s orbit.