America continues to maintain a love/hate relationship with the Turkish government led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. James Jeffrey, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, succinctly summed up the relationship by stating
You have to deal with the Turkey you have, rather than the one you’d like to have
Despite Turkey’s annoying illiberalism, their actions over the past few year demonstrates their importance. Part 1 of this series will examine Turkey’s involvement during the previous decade, sparked by the instability caused by the Arab Spring.
Syria
Bashar Al-Assad took the reins of Syria in July 2000, one month after his father, Hafez al-Assad, died in office. The 2011 the Arab Spring infected to Syria and threatened the government of the Al-Assad clan and their foreign supporters, Russia and Iran. Syria represents a key transit point linking Iran to its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah. Syria also possesses the ports of Latakia and Tartus which remain vital to the Russian navy’s ability to expand its reach. The Syrian opposition’s 2015 push into Latakia and Tartus prompted Russia’s military action in Syria.
As Western and Arab countries sat on their hands, Turkey stepped up to support the Sunni led opposition. In early 2020 Syrian armed forces planned on defeating the last stronghold of the Turkish supported opposition in Idlib. In response, the Turkish military launched Operation Spring Shield to defend their allies. The meat of the campaign occurred between March 1-5 as Turkish drones pounded the Syrians and secured the Syrian opposition’s (small) territorial holding.
While Turkey indirectly assisted the Syrian opposition, they directly invaded Kurdish held territory in Syria. The Kurdish separatism remains the most important threat in Turkey’s eyes and they forcefully prosecute this perceived threat. In January 2018 Turkey invaded northwest Syria and pushed the Kurdish forces out of the area. They followed this up with another invasion in October 2019 focusing on northeastern Syria. Turkey still controls those areas as of today, and we will see if Turkey acts on their threat to invade again.
Libya
In 2004 Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi voluntarily gave up his country’s nuclear weapons program. Seven years later he attempted to quash an uprising to his autocratic rule. In 2011 the UN Security Council, led by the Obama administration, intervened on behalf of Gaddafi’s opponents which led to his ultimate demise. This resulted in not only a decade of instability within Libya, but arms trafficking from Libya sparked several other conflicts in nearby states.
As you can see in the map above, about 250 miles of Mediterranean Sea separates Libya from Turkey. Across those 250 miles a calm rested over Libya for nearly three years as Libya attempted its democratic experiment. That experiment fell apart in 2014 leading to a renewed conflict. Turkey chose to get involved on the side of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).
On the other side of the conflict stands Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA). Haftar participated in the coup that brought Qaddafi to power in 1969. A decade later he commanded Libyan forces in war against their southern neighbor, Chad. Haftar was ultimately captured by the French backed Chadians and abandoned by Qaddafi. Eventually Haftar found his way to the US and coincidentally lived near CIA headquarters in Langley, patiently biding his time.
Just like in Syria, Russia and Turkey found themselves in opposite corners. While Turkey supported the GNA, Russia supported Haftar and his LNA. In April 2019, five years into this war, Haftar pressed his forces to capture the capital of the GNA, Tripoli, which would herald a decisive victory for the LNA. Fortunately for the GNA Turkish drones, like the Bayraktar TB2, halted Haftar’s advances and saved the day for another Turkish ally.
Azerbaijan
Absent Turkey’s assistance I believe that both the Syrian opposition and Libyan GNA would cease to exist. While Turkey’s assistance appears impressive, it was not able to drive its allies towards victory. This changed in Azerbaijan as Turkey lead the Azerbaijanis to a crushing defeat of Armenia.
First, a quick history lesson. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan were members of the U.S.S.R until its collapse in 1991. In the 1920’s the Soviet Union decided to create the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region within Azerbaijan. The problem; this region of Azerbaijan contained 95% ethnic Armenians. After the fall of the Soviet Union both sides fought the first Nagorno-Karabakh war (1994) which resulted in an Armenian victory and de-facto independence for Nagorno-Karabakh.
Beginning in 1992 Turkey began training and advising the armed forces of Azerbaijan. For the next 30 years their close partnership allowed the armed forces of Azerbaijan to advance while their enemies in Armenia rested on the laurels of their 1994 victory. Azerbaijan, along with Georgia and Turkey, created the Baku-Tbilisi Ceyhan Pipeline. This pipeline brought in enormous amounts of revenue into Azerbaijan which financed their purchase of new weapon systems.
While those weapons gave Azerbaijan an advantage over Armenia, intimate Turkish military involvement proved invaluable. Mark Episkopos summed it up nicely
There is a mounting body of evidence that the Azberbaijani war effort was planned, coordinated, and in large part executed by Turkey. Military aid from Ankara included, but was not limited to, Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, special forces commandos, and Turkish-affiliated Syrian mercenaries. Turkish control over Azerbaijan’s armed forces is so deeply embedded that there are reports of Azerbaijani military officers being fired at Ankara’s behest after criticizing the extent of Turkish involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent participation at a victory parade in Baku evoked a striking portrait: the two leaders stood side by side, behind them a row of Turkish and Azerbaijani flags arrayed in equal numbers. Indeed, Turkish flags were just as ubiquitous on the streets of Baku as their Azerbaijani counterparts.
This war ended in disaster for Armenia, one can easily see this by looking at the territorial gains made by Azerbaijan during this 44 day war.
Conclusion
I have now taken you through Turkey’s military success throughout the last decade. Next week we will catch up with Turkey’s more recent adventures.