As the new Congress finally elects its speaker, I want to pay tribute to my favorite House Democrat in the 117th Congress. U.S. House Rep Elaine Luria, first elected to the VA-2nd seat in 2018, lost her reelection to the 118th Congress. She served in the Navy for 20 years, rising to become an executive officer of the cruiser USS Anzio. Representative Luria became notorious as a staunch critic of the U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding plan. It is not very often that a U.S. congressperson changes my mind, but that is exactly what representative Luria did.
Battle Force 2045
In 2017 CSBA, MITRE, and the U.S. Congress studied the optimal makeup of the future U.S. Navy Fleet. All three studies emphasized increasing unmanned ships compared to current navy plans. From the Niskanen Center
One of the main differences between the Alternative Future Fleet Platform Architecture Study and the current plans for the Navy fleet is the study’s focus on unmanned vessels. While the alternative fleet would procure 34 fewer manned vessels than the official U.S. Navy plan, it calls for 128 more unmanned vessels.
These studies and exercises culminated in Battle Force 2045. This plan, released right before the 2020 election, calls for a naval fleet of 355 ships in 2030 and over 500 in 2045. For comparison, the U.S. Navy possessed 296 ships in 2020. To build over 500 ships by 2045, the U.S. Navy relies heavily on unmanned ships. The 2022 30-year shipbuilding plan called for the creation of up to 140 unmanned vessels.
The U.S. Navy continues to integrate unmanned ships into the fleet. The Pentagon’s Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO) created the Ghost Fleet Overlord program, resulting in the Ranger Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV). In September 2021 the Ranger successfully launched a containerized version of the SM-6 missile, capable of hitting a ship, aircraft, or a ballistic missile.
In May 2020 the U.S. Navy created Surface Development Squadron 1 (SURFDEVRON) which will integrate the highly automated Zumwalt-class Destroyers with unmanned vessels. The Navy may try to integrate the Ranger into SURFDEVRON and bring the Navy one step closer to the robot revolution. I was convinced that the future of U.S. Navy relies on unmanned surface like the Ranger, until Representative Luria bursted my bubble.
USVs Not Ready
In May 2021 Congresswoman Luria discussed the U.S. Navy’s future with China at the Hudson Institute. She questioned the usefulness of relying on GPS dependent unmanned ships to operate in an environment with degraded or destroyed GPS. You can directly link USV’s to other ships, but that would give away the other ship’s position. If unmanned ships cannot operate in a GPS denied environment then can we rely on them in a fight with a high-end competitor like China?
A year later, September 2022, Iran managed to capture two Saildrone Explore unmanned surface vehicles (USV). Representative Luria used that event to highlight two further issues with USVs. First, keeping up maintenance on USVs conducting long and time-consuming missions will be a nightmare. Second, what is the purpose of USVs? Is it intel, electronic warfare, missile boats?
VLS
If the answer is missile boats then that ameliorates another issue Rep Luria focused on. One can gauge comparative naval strength by analyzing number of ships built, total tonnage of ships, and ship missile capacity. The U.S. currently possesses nearly 10,000 Vertical Launch Silos (VLS) on naval ships. Each ship’s VLS can be outfitted with a missile capable of striking targets on sea, on land, in the air, or potentially in space.
According to an analysis from Rep. Luria, the U.S. Navy’s poor naval shipbuilding will result in the loss of 1,700 of its VLS by 2027 and around 2,000 by 2035. For comparison, The U.S. Navy VLS capacity currently hovers around 10,000. The loss of this offensive capacity has been termed the Davidson window and threatens the America’s ability to deter China.
To close the Davidson window and refill the thousands of missiles America will lose, Rep Luria proposes to add 64 VLS cells capability to 13 Expeditionary Fast Transport (EPF) ships. This plan will patch up the Davidson window, and give the U.S. Navy enough time to bring on new VLS capability in the 2030’s.
Conclusion
Representative Elaine Luria will leave a long legacy despite her short stint in Congress. Rep Luria highlighted practical issues stemming from the U.S. Navy’s infatuation with drones as well as the difficulty in deterring China with a shortage of VLS cells. I will pray that Rep Luria’s colleagues on the U.S. House Armed Service committee will continue her work.