Defense Debrief: Conflicts Under the Radar
Exploring Russia's role in conflicts overlooked by the headlines
Beyond Ukraine and Taiwan
As Ukraine’s counteroffensive heats up, Russia’s invasion in Ukraine remains the most discussed foreign policy issue in the U.S. media. Readers can be forgiven for assuming that Russia’s invasion in Ukraine (and tensions in Taiwan) represent the entirety of foreign policy issues. Surprisingly, the war in Ukraine represents only one of Russia’s foreign policy conflicts. I will now give an overview of conflicts brewing under the radar involving Russia.
Bosnia & Herzegovina
During the Cold War, Yugoslavia crafted itself as a somewhat non-aligned socialist state dominated by the dictatorial leadership of Josip Broz Tito. After the fall of the Berlin wall Yugoslavia disintegrated into many states which culminated into the Yugoslav wars of the 1990’s. The war finally ended due to the decisive actions of the U.S. military which led to the Dayton Peace Accords.
Nearly 30 years later the Accords still keep the peace in southern Europe, but storm-clouds loom over the horizon in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Foreign Policy gives a good overview of the current political situation.
Bosnia is administratively divided between two decentralized entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has a mostly Bosniak and Croat population, and Republika Srpska, which has a Serb majority. Russia’s policy consists in encouraging the separatist instincts of the latter.
Republic Srpska threatens to rip apart the complicated compromise created by the Dayton Peace Accords. Milorad Dodik (President of Republic Srpska and the Serb representative in Bosnia & Herzegovina tripartite presidential system) threatened to withdraw Republic Srpska from the Bosnia & Herzegovina’s judicial, tax, and military systems. This withdrawal is tantamount to succession and should cause the state of Bosnia & Herzegovina to collapse.
Luckily for Europe, Dodik decided to postpone the decision on succession until February 2023. Dodik maintains a long established relationship with Putin, which begs the question the following question. Why does Russia care about such a small country? Fomenting a conflict in Bosnia & Herzegovina will preclude their membership into NATO and the European Union.
Unfortunately for Europe the breakup of Yugoslavia reverberates not only in Bosnia & Herzegovina, but in its eastern neighbor, Serbia, as well.
Serbia
The map above shows Serbia and Kosovo, a (former) Serbian province located in the southwestern section of Serbia populated mostly by Albanians. In 1945 the Serbian constitution enshrined Kosovo’s autonomous status. That autonomy began to unravel in 1996 as Serbian authorities cracked down on Kosovar separatism. This tension continued for another decade resulting in Kosovo declaring independence from Serbia in 2008, which Serbia continues to not recognize.
It seems like the script has flipped as the Serbian minority presses for autonomy from Kosovo. Kosovo plans on forcing Serbs living in Kosovo to use vehicular license plates issued by Kosovar authorities instead of Serbian authorities. This announcement led to much protests, but on September 1st, 2022 CNN reported that Kosovar authorities began the two month implementation of issuing their license plate to Kosovar Serbs.
Serbia is trying to do its best to balance eastern and western influences. Serbia has been a candidate for EU membership since 2012, but needs to mend relations with Kosovo before joining. Serbia also buys weapons and gas from Russia who like Serbia refuses to recognize Kosovo’s independence. Serbia’s tilt to the east is highlighted by their refusal to join the rest of the Europe, including Hungary, in sanctioning Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
I expect Serbia to plan its response in coordination with Russia. As Defense News reported
Serbia has frequently been accused of saber-rattling and working with Slavic ally Russia to destabilize neighboring Bosnia, Montenegro and Kosovo
Nagorno-Karabakh
Both Armenia and Azerbaijan were members of the U.S.S.R until its collapse in 1991. In the 1920’s the Soviet Union decided to create the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region within Azerbaijan. The problem; this region of Azerbaijan contained 95% ethnic Armenians. After the fall of the Soviet Union both sides fought the first Nagorno-Karabakh war (1994) which resulted in an Armenian victory and de-facto independence for Nagorno-Karabakh.
As I described in my first article on Turkey, the second Nagorno-Karabakh war (2020) ended in disaster for Armenia. I did not mention that Russian mediation played a huge role in the diplomatic deal ending the hostilities. Part of that diplomatic deal involved stationing Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. Those peacekeepers have been recalled to fight in Ukraine, while inexperienced troops replace them. A Politico headline says it all, “With Russia distracted, clashes rock Nagorno-Karabakh“
Azerbaijan has taken advantage of Russia’s distraction to improve their position. On August 26, 2022 Radio Free Europe reported that Azerbaijan captured the strategic city of Lachin. What makes that city strategic? As shown in the map above, Lachin denotes the beginning of the Lachin corridor, Armenia’s only physical connection to Nagorno-Karabakh. With Lachin under the control of Azerbaijan, Armenia finds itself physically cut-off from the disputed area.
Conclusion
As Russia continues its invasion in Ukraine, their other foreign policy gambits do not go unnoticed. Adept Russian foreign policy may lead to two conflicts in southern Europe while inattentive Russian foreign policy may lead the resumption of conflicts in the Caucasus. The U.S. Army, Army Doctrine Publication (ADP) 3-0, 2017 states the following
War is a human endeavor—a fundamentally human clash of wills often fought among populations.
Because war is a human endeavor, the task of preventing war never ends. Hopefully those tasked with preventing war succeed in the areas of conflicts we just reviewed.