Ukraine Map Update
Similar to World War 1 the frontlines of war in Ukraine seem to remain fixed. The map below attempts to plot Ukrainian armed formations onto the current battle map. While the Ukrainian data is much more available than Russian data, a clear frontline has emerged in this war.
We can confirm this by using a map from NASA called Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS). This tool captures location of fires (including weapons like artillery) and plots it on a map. You can see that the fires that have been occurring in Ukraine line up well with the frontline of current battle map I pasted above.
Going deeper, we can see three clusters of frontlines within the overall frontline. From west to east I label them the Kherson frontline, the Zaporizhzhia frontline, and the Donbas frontline.
Starting from the west, we have the Kherson frontline. This is Russia’s weakest position, Ukrainian forces remains only 10 miles away from Kherson. By taking this city the Ukrainians can easily threaten both Crimea and Crimea’s main source of water, the North Crimean Canal.
Moving east we see the Zaporizhzhia frontline. This frontline protects Russia’s land bridge connecting Crimea to The Donbas. Ukrainian armed forces also lie around 10 miles from another strategic city, Vasylivka. If Ukraine takes this city then they can move west and capture the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, move south to take Melitopol which opens up another road to Crimea, and/or they can move east to recapture Mariupol.
Moving further east we reach our final frontline, The Donbas. Russia’s offensive in The Donbas appears to focus solely on Sievierodonetsk. On June 1st we can see the results of Russia’s breakout from Popansa. Russia advanced north to encircle Sievierodonetsk from the south and moved south towards a major highway.
Based on current trends I see no reason to expect major changes in the frontlines. While the HIMARS rocket launcher will help Ukraine, I do not believe it will decisively alter the battlefield.
Apparently F-16s may provide that decisive edge. Ukrainian pilots who spoke to The Warzone continued their advocacy for the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine. A pilot named Juice stated the following regarding why they want the F-16
We need suppression of enemy air defense capability, we need air-to-ground capability and the priority is air-to-air capability.
I am intrigued by this statement. I did not believe F-16s would operate effectively against Russia’s air defense assets, let alone suppress Russian air defense. Apparently Ukrainian pilots, who have skin in the game, think otherwise.
This concludes our debrief