Defense Debrief: 2022 - Week 24
Action on Snake Island, The Future of Tank Warfare, And European DisUnion
Action on Snake Island
Despite its status as a tiny rock in the Black Sea, Snake Island continues to make appearances in the war in Ukraine. In the beginning of the war Ukrainian defenders on Snake Island were greeted by the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, a Slava class cruiser named the Moskova. The soldiers on the island responded to the Russian cruiser “Warship, go fuck yourself“. The soldiers were originally reported as dead, but the media made a mistake, the soldiers lived.
On June 18, 2022 Ukraine asserts they sunk a Russian naval vessel with two Harpoon Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCM). This represents Ukraine’s first successful use of the Harpoon ASCM. Denmark, The Netherlands, and Great Britain began supplying these missile to Ukraine three weeks ago. On June 15, three days before Ukraine’s successful strike, the Biden administration announced they joined the club and will send Ukraine Harpoons as well. Ukrainian allies hope that the Harpoon ASCM will allow Ukraine to credibly threaten Russia’s navy.
Lastly I want to take us back to May 7, 2022. On this day we witnessed an impressive bombing run by the Ukrainian Air force against air defense assets on Snake Island. This attack occurred after Ukraine’s Bayraktar TB2 drone cleared the Russian anti-air defense systems defending the island. I argued that this attack demonstrates how to keep fourth generation aircraft relevant. This week Germany helped illuminate how to ensure the relevancy of tanks.
The Future of Tank Warfare
On June 14, 2022 Germany revealed their tank of the future called The Panther. This tank will fire the 130mm shell (which travels 50% farther than the NATO standard 120mm shell), include four quadcopter reconnaissance drones, and four Israeli made HERO-120 suicide drones. The combinations of drones and the 130mm shell allows the Panther to strike farther and deeper than any tank ever made. I am sure Russian soldiers wished they invaded Ukraine with piece of armor.
I am also sure Russia would love to pair their tank with the Israeli made Medium Robotic Combat Vehicle (M-RCV). On June 13, 2022 Israel announced it will begin testing this Unmanned Ground Vehicle. The M-RCV features a smaller 30mm gun, anti-tank missiles, and deployable reconnaissance drones. RCVs will feature heavily in the US Army’s conception of the modern battlefield.
Breaking Defense described a vision of the future battlefield. RCV’s like the Israeli M-RCV arrive first to surveil the battlefield, clear mines, interfere with enemy communications, and fight robotic enemies. Then Heavy Robot Combat Vehicles (H-RCV) will escort main battle tanks like Germany’s Panther as it unload on the enemy using its far reaching 130mm cannon. This all occurs as each vehicle launches a plethora of drones and missiles toward the enemy.
The following graphic presents a visual of this future battlefield. We see three lines traveling from near the top of the graphic to the bottom of the visual. Once you cross the green line you enter the domain of the enemy’s Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). Behind the white line lies the enemy’s RCV’s. After passing both robotic lines, enemy human troops and manned vehicles prepare themselves for battle beyond the blue line.
This vision of war still remains years in the distance while a less robotic war continues in the present. Unfortunately for Ukraine signs of disunity emerge in Europe.
European DisUnion
The European Union Council on Foreign Relations featured a study attempting to gauge Europe’s attitude towards Ukraine. The study surveyed around 8,000 Europeans from a broad cross-section of European nations that one can divide into two camps.
More skeptical of Russia - Poland, Romania, Finland, Sweden, and Great Britain
Less skeptical of Russia - France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Portugal
The survey produced three groups of European citizens.
Peace camp - Prioritizes ending the war even if that includes forcing Ukraine to make unwanted concessions
Justice camp - Favors ending the war by helping Ukraine take back lands lost, even if it leads to a longer and deadlier war.
Swing camp - Can’t decide between Peace and Justice
It should be of no surprise that France and Germany along with Italy continue their hard push for a peace deal. While the Peace camp holds a majority in all of the survey countries except Poland, 20% of the respondents (Swing voters) can be persuaded into either camp. As this war drags on, the Swing camp will decide Europe’s attitude towards Ukraine.
Defense Debrief Update
Two weeks ago I discussed Joe Biden stating for the third time since August 2021 that the United States is committed to defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression. This statement would represent a break from the current policy called ‘strategic ambiguity’ where the US does not clarify whether or not they will defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression. It appears this displeased the Chinese as Wei Fenghe, China’s Defense Minister, stated the following
If anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight. We will fight at all costs. And we will fight to the very end. This is the only choice for China.
It may be between five years to ten years before China gains the capability to annex Taiwan, but they will eventually force an end to ‘strategic ambiguity’.
This concludes our debrief